NEC Technologies Accurately Predict Data Transfer Rates of the Internet and Mobile Communication Networks- Predict throughput up to 3 minutes in advance with roughly 80% accuracy -

*** For immediate use November 26, 2012

Tokyo, November 26, 2012 - NEC Corporation (NEC; TSE: 6701) has developed technologies that use application software to accurately predict the data transfer rates (network throughput, *1) of the Internet and mobile communication networks (3G/LTE).

The network throughput of best-effort networks (*2), such as the Internet and mobile communication networks, changes every moment depending on the network environment and signal interference among users. This causes response delays and image deterioration that reduce the quality of cloud services.

These newly developed technologies enable accurate predictions of network throughput up to three minutes in advance utilizing just application software, without adding new communications equipment to the network. These predictions are then used to control data communications, enabling the provision of high-quality cloud services, even for cloud service providers that do not have communications equipment.

The use of these technologies enables businesses to provide uninterrupted, high quality content delivery services by adapting video and music quality to a level that is optimized for the predicted network throughput. Moreover, the content size can also be adjusted in response to throughput, resulting in highly responsive Web services.

Key features of these technologies include the following:

1. Determines the status of network throughput
   NEC discovered that network throughput is a complex mixture of communications environments that experience stable fluctuations (stationary state) and volatile fluctuations (non-stationary state) (*3). These throughput conditions (stationary or non-stationary) are determined utilizing unit root tests (*4) for analysis of time series data.
   
   The stationary model and non-stationary model (*5) are then mixed depending on the state of throughput that was determined, which enables the creation of a throughput prediction model (mixed model) for 3 minutes ahead of the present time. As a result, highly precise, real time predictions are available for the constantly fluctuating state of throughput.




2. Predictions provided through convenient application software
   This newly developed mixed model is able to create predictions by utilizing just the history of past transferred data volumes (network throughput). As a result, predictions can be made using application software alone, without adding communications equipment to the network.




3. Provides predictions that are roughly 80% accurate for the Internet and mobile communication networks
   Predictions of network throughput up to 3 minutes in advance with 80% accuracy (*6) are enabled utilizing the probability distribution for the range of network throughput fluctuation.

Notes

(*1) Communications throughput is the data size that can be transmitted per unit of time. Units are represented by bits per second (bps).

(*2) Best-effort networks are networks where communication quality is not guaranteed.

(*3) Based on NEC research.

(*4) The unit root test is a time-series analysis technique that checks for stationary or non-stationary conditions.

(*5) This is a mathematical model that represents the fluctuations in stationary and non-stationary states.

(*6) Simulation using throughput from the Internet and mobile communications networks (3G/LTE).

NEC Press Contacts (Japan)

Takehiko Kato
NEC Corporation
+81-3-3798-6511
E-Mail:t-kato@cj.jp.nec.com

Joseph Jasper
NEC Corporation
+81-3-3798-6511
E-Mail:j-jasper@ax.jp.nec.com